NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT, still a short opportunity?

Founded in 2004 and publicly traded since 2010, Northwest (TSX: NWH.UN) is a global real estate investor and asset manager focused on properties and partnerships at the intersection of healthcare, knowledge, and research. We’re a real estate investment trust with more than $10B of assets under management, owning and operating a portfolio of more than 230 high-quality properties across Canada, the United States, Brazil, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand.

Source: NWH.UN About page

I was aware of NorthWest Healthcare Properties REIT (TSX:NWH.UN) for some time.
According to my records, I bought and sold stock once back in 2017 for some unknown reasons. 🙂
Back then, it looked like a pretty stable and profitable REIT, owning hospitals and medical office buildings in different countries.
I probably wanted to buy it a couple more times since then, but it never happened, and now…
Now, I’m thinking to short it.

I’ve noticed first troubles (too little too late) with NWH.UN back in February 2023 but didn’t pay much attention.
I’ve looked closely at the stock again only in June 2023, when their attempt to sell UK assets failed:

Northwest Healthcare Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (the “REIT”) (TSX: NWH.UN), announced today that the REIT and the previously referenced Institutional Investor will no longer be proceeding with the REIT’s previously disclosed UK joint venture.

Source: NORTHWEST HEALTHCARE PROPERTIES REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST ANNOUNCES THAT THE REIT AND THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR WILL NOT BE PROCEEDING WITH THE UK JOINT VENTURE
(that’s a very long title!)

And that was a very important deal for the company because it was in dire need of cash and was struggling to pay monthly distributions:

After bad news, the CEO was removed, and the board of directors has initiated a “strategic review”.
Eah, that reminds me of the SOT.UN situation.
I doubt they will be able to sell assets fast enough for a good price in the current environment, so the only solution is to cut distribution.
With a current yield of 12%+, the market is pricing a 50% cut, so I’m assuming a 55% cut from the current C$0.80 to C$0.36 a year.
This will result in a distribution yield of around 5.7%, which is too low nowadays.
Thus, the price of the NWH.UN stock should decline to something like C$5/share.

I’ve shorted the stock on September 8, hoping to see an announcement of a distribution cut, but it didn’t happen, and I’ve chickened out and covered my short position on September 14, expecting to see a regular distribution announcement on September 15.
But it never happened!

It’s been 5 days, all other REITs announced their September distributions, but not NorthWest Healthcare.
The stock price has already declined around 10% in the absence of news.
So, should I short it again? 🙂